Low flying Seagulls can soar again

Hello again everyone. Hope those of you reading this blog have had yourselves a good few days since I last posted and that you have been making the most of the milder weather we have had here in Blighty in the last week or so.

Well, I suppose the big news around these parts in the last day or so has been the unceremonious departure of Micky Adams as manager of Brighton & Hove Albion FC. Adams was in his second spell as manager of the Seagulls and he was re-introduced as the prodigal son before the start of the season having secured promotion for Brighton in his first spell as manager of the club between 1998 and 2000.

As you may have picked up, I am not a supporter of Brighton as such, but being a life long inhabitant of the city and with me having plenty of friends and acquaintances who do support the club, I obviously take a keen interest in the club's fortunes and certainly do not wish any ill will on the club. Through speaking to people I know and from reading press reports, Adams's departure as manager was not a surprise and it has been evident for a few weeks that it was only a matter of time before Adams left the scene, either voluntarily or with the board's intervention. In the end, it would appear that it was Adams's superiors who took the decision.

They say you should never go back and I think that applies in any profession. How many of us would ever consider returning to an old employer, as it very rarely offers the progression and development opportunities to provide job satisfaction and things just are unlikely to be the same second time around. Adams was a hero in his first spell as Brighton manager, but it is worth remembering that his first spell came after Brighton had hit rock bottom having come within 20 minutes of relegation out of the Football League just a year or two before. The club that Adams came back to was no longer in need of "saving", and therefore the managerial approach he applied first time around was no longer relevant.

It is not the first time that Brighton have re-appointed a manager. Back in the 1980s, Alan Mullery managed Brighton in two separate spells, either side of the club marking their greatest achievement to date, to reach an FA Cup final in 1983. In Mullery's first spell, the club were promoted to the top flight of English football, where they stayed for four seasons. Mullery undid the good work in his second spell though, as the ageing team he presided over dropped into the third tier of English football and Mullery was promptly sacked with his reputation tarnished. The same is now of true of Adams. His place in history would have been secure had he not returned to Brighton, but now for many, he is going to be remembered as the man that took Brighton backwards rather than the man who pushed them forwards at the turn of the millennium.

Back last summer when Adams was re-appointed, it seemed as though the club made the decision with a degree of nostalgia in mind. The club's chairman Dick Knight and the rest of the board seemed to have their heads turned by the notion of Adams being in charge for when Brighton played its first game at the new Falmer Stadium, which is scheduled to happen some time in 2011. Knight was also keen to ensure that Brighton would be back in the Championship by the time Falmer opens for business and with a hint of cold heartedness seemed to think that the previous manager Dean Wilkins wasn't capable of getting Brighton promoted, but thought the greater experience of Micky Adams could make the difference.

On the surface, you can see some logic in this thinking. But scratch beneath the surface a bit and that decision was just a tad impetuous. Wilkins had just led Brighton to seventh place in League One, one place off the play-offs. Which was actually a fine achievement, if perhaps, a slightly flattering one. There was no real expectation that Brighton would challenge for promotion at the start of the campaign but a strong finish to the season saw Brighton climb up to seventh as other teams' campaigns tailed off. The mistake that the board made was to assume that the club would automatically challenge for promotion the following season and that Adams would make the difference between making the top half and making at least the play-offs. Knight got a bit ahead of himself and in getting rid of Wilkins, he got rid of the man who had mentored many of the young players who were the spine of the team.

Wilkins's style of football was also different to Adams's preferred methods. Wilkins encouraged his players to play a passing game, whereas Adams, a student of Dave Bassett's long ball game from his time at Sheffield United, preferred to play a more direct game, making the most of aerial play. This approach suited Brighton in Adams's first spell when he inherited players with a limited footballing ability but who had a physical presence, but it was unsuitable on his return as Brighton had a coherent style of play and Adams's preferred approach was not compatible in a team which did not have 6 foot 3 giants in every position and which was more lightweight than his previous team.

From looking on from the outside, I did feel that Brighton would find it hard to match their seventh place finish of last season, regardless of who managed the team. I did not expect the team to deteriorate as much as it has this season, however, with the team currently finding itself in the League One relegation zone. At the start of the season, I would have probably predicted that Brighton would end the season around about halfway up the table. The reasons I would have given for Brighton being unlikely to improve on last season's finish would primarily have been because of their susceptibility playing at home, the strength of the promoted and relegated teams joining the division and the comparative lack of resources to strengthen the quality of the squad.

With the benefit of hindsight, I would say all of these factors I thought would present a barrier have indeed played a part to some degree or another. Brighton's home form has been appalling, but they have got themselves into a vicious circle. Having watched Brighton at the Withdean Stadium once or twice, I can understand how it must be quite disconcerting to be the home team playing there. Home crowds can often energise players where there is a cauldron of noise, but there just isn't a proper atmosphere at Withdean with the crowd so far away from the pitch and with a hammer cage behind one of the goals. Rather than be inspired by playing at home, I think Brighton's players have grown to relish doing so less and less and I think it is no surprise that their performances have generally been better away from home where they get good travelling support and the visiting fans are less likely to get on the players' backs.

There's no doubt that the quality of the teams entering the division has played a part in Brighton dropping down the division, with three of the promoted teams to the division currently being in the top 7, while of the teams relegated from the Championship at the end of last season, 2 also find themselves in the top 7. Where perhaps there has been some difference in line with my expectations has been with regards to strengthening the squad. Under Micky Adams, Brighton did plenty of business in the transfer market, but due to the financial restrictions they had, Adams opted to bring several players on loan and this seemed to contribute to the team getting disjointed.

I watched Brighton's Johnstone's Paint Trophy exit to Luton on television earlier in the week and although the result was affected in no small part by the red card for David Livermore for an awful tackle, it could not mask certain deficiencies in Brighton's play. Defensively, Brighton have been making far too many individual errors over the course of the season and they made a costly mistake just a minute into the match which led to Luton taking the lead. It was also noticeable how little cohesion there was in Brighton's passing, even allowing for the mitigating circumstances of a quagmire of a pitch. Brighton looked like a team lacking direction and confidence, and you would have to say that this confidence was drained under Adams's tenure. I would also question Brighton's strategy in the penalty shoot-out. They had won 3 previous shoot-outs this season but their last 2 penalty takers in the shoot-out at Luton had not participated in any of these. These players both missed when others on the pitch would have had more confidence had they been called upon.

Adams's departure in the aftermath of this defeat, therefore, looked nailed on. The Johnstone's Paint Trophy did at least offer Brighton supporters with a distraction from their relegation battle and the chance of a trip to Wembley for the first time in eighteen years. With that opportunity gone and only a fight for survival left to play for, and given the vociferous level of opinion against Adams that had grown amongst Brighton supporters via various media, the board members in possession of the power at Brighton were unlikely to grant Adams with more time to get things right, particularly as he was widely viewed as being part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

While I think there are certainly occasions where chairmen get an itchy trigger finger too soon when results go against their team and the manager collects their P45 prematurely, I think in this instance, Brighton's board took the correct course of action in relieving Adams of his duties. For a board to retain faith in its manager, there needs to be some signs of progress, however small, in order for them to persevere with the man in charge. I don't think you can really argue that Adams was demonstrating any signs of progress and given that Brighton had recorded just three league victories in Adams's last four months in charge, there were clear signs of regression rather than progression and there was a danger this regression would have grown deeper without immediate action, to a point where Brighton's season was irretrievable.

There is a school of thought to say that Adams in fact had been given a stay of execution for longer than he had merited, particularly as Brighton made a few transfer dealings in January which he will have instigated. So, whoever the next incumbent is in the Albion manager's hotseat will find themselves having to get points on the board with the previous manager's signings. This is unfortunate in a way andit is perhaps surprising that Adams was allowed to bring in his transfer targets at a time when his own future was clouded in doubt. But such was Brighton's need to inject new life into their season, I think they were just looking at getting points on the board quickly rather than thinking about the bigger picture.

I do think that Brighton will stay in League One come the end of the season. Although I would not put them among the stronger teams in the division, they do have a number of players at their disposal who have proven themselves at League One level. The experience and goals of Nicky Forster will be key to their chances and they could also do with the return of Glenn Murray from his various injury niggles very soon. There is often little difference in the quality of teams in lower divisions, but what ultimately determines who gets promoted and relegated are who has a regular goalscorer. Leicester City have Matty Fryatt and Steven Howard, which is why they are top of the league. Peterborough have done well because of Craig McKail-Smith and Aaron McLean, Millwall have generally won when Neil Harris has found the back of the net, while it is noticeable that Leeds's poor run of form this season coincided with Jermain Beckford's absence from the team. At Brighton's end of the division, Leyton Orient's chances of survival will be helped by them having a proven goalscorer in Adam Boyd available to them. Forster and Murray between them are capable of registering 30 goals for the season, a figure which would go a long way to keeping Brighton up if it is reached.

When I was talking to a friend yesterday, I said that for Brighton to start picking up, they needed to win 2 or 3 matches in a row by the odd goal without necessarily playing well. Brighton have conceded far too many goals this season and players have been making individual errors. After the run they have had, Brighton need to focus firstly on keeping things solid defensively. A run of 2 or 3 games with 1-0 wins will breed confidence however those results are achieved and gradually 2 or 3 wins can become 4 or 5 wins and as the confidence grows, so too will the players' belief in trying things which they might not have done when all the while they were losing. From this end, Brighton made the perfect start post-Micky Adams by winning 1-0 at Millwall, a team in the play-off places and always an intimidating place to go to.

The thing about winning at Millwall was that there was no expectation on the players to get a victory there and with the dismissal of Adams earlier in the day, that removed a weight from the players' shoulders. The contrast with Brighton's next match at home to Northampton on Tuesday night will be stark. This has the feel of a relegation six-pointer given how the Cobblers have dropped like a stone over the past few weeks. If Brighton can take the 3 points in this encounter, they will make their predicament more healthy whilst plunging Northampton into real trouble. Should Northampton take the 3 points though, then it would leave Brighton in a very precarious position in the drop zone. Whereas Brighton had no expectation against Millwall, there is real expectation on them against Northampton and it will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure, will their quality tell or will they buckle under the pressure? If Brighton can cut out the sloppiness, I expect them to win the game, but it is difficult to trust Brighton at Withdean for the moment.

There are four teams who will drop into League Two come the end of the season and from what I can see, three of them look guaranteed already. Cheltenham are getting cast adrift at the bottom and look like dead certs for relegation, while the occasional shock victory aside, Hereford do not have the quality needed to reel off enough wins to stay up. Crewe have improved a little since the turn of the year, but again, I question whether they are capable of getting enough wins to get out of trouble. So that leaves one remaining relegation spot which at the moment looks like being between Brighton, Leyton Orient, Swindon and Northampton, although I wouldn't rule Hartlepool or Yeovil out of the equation yet.

I've already said that I feel Brighton will retain their place in the division, but I also expect Leyton Orient to do so. Orient have had a poor season this campaign but they have several players who are more than capable of playing at this level and of producing when it really matters. Like Brighton, they have struggled at home this season, but with a new man in charge, I very much doubt they will be in the bottom four at the end of the season. I also think Swindon will get out of trouble. Their results have picked up of late since former Brighton player Danny Wilson took over as their manager and Swindon tend to be awkward to beat in front of their home fans. The team I expect to drop into trouble are Northampton, who have been in very poor form of late and are struggling for goals. That is why I feel it is imperative that Brighton defeat them on Tuesday night.

Brighton did bring in some players during January and I would expect some of these players to come to the fore between now and the end of the season. McNulty should give some stability at left back while the return of Seb Carole on loan will help to provide more service for the attacking players. It is defensively where Brighton have the biggest question marks but I think in the most part, their faltering displays at the back have been the result of a lack of confidence and belief. With a change of manager and a change of approach, some of these deficiencies could well be overcome.

So, who will be the new manager then? There have been a number of names put forward by Brighton supporters and amateur recruiters and I suppose there is a natural temptation to suggest the possibility of Dean Wilkins returning. But, just as Micky Adams was not the right choice at the right time because Brighton's circumstances had changed since he first managed the club, I would also advise caution in going back to Dean Wilkins. Wilkins's managerial experience is limited and whereas he left a club that was just short of the play-offs, he would be returning to a club in a relegation battle, something which he had not presided over in his career to date. Wilkins's style of management and his firm principles of playing passing football would also need to be tailored somewhat to the task in hand of getting victories however they happen to come in order to stay up.

It would appear that Brighton will be looking to make a quick appointment, and given their current predicament, I think that is a sensible decision. One name supposedly on the shortlist will be Paul Ince, and there would be some logic in that appointment should it happen, although given that Ince managed in the Premier League earlier in the season, I wonder whether he might hold out for a Championship job. There are several out of work managers with lower league experience of various calibres who would be available and I would expect some of these names to materialise. Personally though, I think Dick Knight should go knocking at the door of Aidy Boothroyd.

Boothroyd until earlier this season was the manager of Watford and he did a wonderful job as manager of the Hornets, taking them from the relegation zone in the Championship to promotion the following season. Staying in the Premier League was always going to be a struggle because of the lack of resources Boothroyd had available, but nonetheless, he guided Watford to an FA Cup semi-final and his Watford side set the early pace in their first season back in the Championship before the loss of players in order to raise much needed revenue curtailed their challenge and they ended up missing out in the play-offs. A poor start to this season saw Boothroyd sacked, somewhat harshly in my view, as I felt Watford would get out of the position they were in, as they subsequently have under their new manager.

Boothroyd is comparatively young at just 37 years of age and it is true that he has not previously managed at this level. Nonetheless, Boothroyd's strength at Watford was getting the best out of a limited group of players and getting them to play to their strengths. Some Brighton supporters might be reluctant to take on to Boothroyd because, like Micky Adams, he has had a reputation for favouring a more direct brand of football. This argument has some validity, but Boothroyd has always struck me as somebody who ultimately will get his team to play in accordance with its strengths. It just so happened at Watford that he had players at his disposal who were more suited to a direct game because of their physical attributes and powerful play. I would expect that if Boothroyd took the reins at Withdean, his approach would alter because of the players he had available to him, although I would expect Boothroyd to toughen up some of the players.

The board need to be realistic in terms of who they can get, but they should show some ambition too, which admittedly sounds like a difficult act to balance. In the here and now, obviously the goal is simply to stay in League One, but they should not lose sight of the destination they want to head towards. Knight's motivation in appointing Micky Adams in the first place was that he wanted him to lead Brighton out at the first game at Falmer in 2011 with Brighton being a Championship outfit. That ambition is still attainable, albeit it is a mission that has been set back rather than moved forwards during Adams's tenure. But, Brighton only need to look at Millwall who are contenders for promotion this season to realise just how quickly things can change. Last season, the Lions narrowly avoided relegation having been bottom of the table for much of the first part of last season. Therefore, if Brighton want to be in the Championship by 2011 and generally believe they have the infrastructure in place that will enable them to do more than survive at that level, then their next managerial appointment needs to be one which is in Brighton for the long haul and who will be able to cope with the step up to managing in the second tier.

The template for Brighton is Reading FC. Both clubs have the distinction of representing an entire county (in Brighton's case, they represent nearly 2 counties) and have competed against one another in the lower divisions many times over the years. I recall that when Brighton won League One back in the 2000/01 season, it was Reading who finished runners-up to them. Since then, Reading have played in the Premier League and despite a recent blip, stand a good chance of returning there next season and like Brighton are about to, they have moved to a new stadium with community benefits and are a well run football club from top to bottom, with a good youth setup and sound financial management. Brighton should look to follow Reading's example by putting a manager in place who can focus on building a team ethos where the collective whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

League One survival at the end of the season is of paramount importance to Brighton. I expect them to achieve this objective a little more easily than those with a vested interest perhaps feel they will and I see them ending the campaign in around sixteenth place. But the important thing is that they take some impetus into next season in what will be Brighton's final full campaign at Withdean, to the great relief of all the supporters exposed to the elements on a cold, wet winter's night. Their next managerial appointment is going to be vital because it is to be hoped that the same manager will be in the dug out for that first game at Falmer in the autumn of 2011.

Whether Dick Knight takes my advice and appoints Aidy Boothroyd or not, I just hope the man they do appoint fits the club's ethos well and points them in the right direction. At this time, I actually think Brighton would do better to appoint someone detached from the club, rather than a previous Albion player or manager, so that they bring in their own ideas and principles which are not clouded by sentiment or the pressures of previous failures. Get the right man, then there's no reason why the Seagulls cannot soar again in the near future.