Sunday 21 February 2010

Champions League last 16 previews - week commencing 22 February 2010

Another batch of 2nd round 1st leg Champions League matches are taking place this midweek. Here's my take on affairs:

Stuttgart v Barcelona
The holders have been in imperious form in La Liga this season, although their unbeaten domestic campaign was ended by Atletico Madrid last weekend. They have continued to be the free scoring force that they were in winning this competition last season, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic having been a regular goalscorer since his signing from Inter Milan. Stuttgart by contrast have had a poor season and their place in the second round owed much to being in the weakest first round group. A 5-1 win at struggling Cologne at the weekend was a rare moment of joy in what has been a poor campaign. Stuttgart have Barcelona old boy Aleksandr Hleb in their ranks and will look to him to provide their creative spark. Given that Stuttgart are out of contention for Champions League qualification for next season, they can enter this match with a nothing to lose and that could make them dangerous. All said and done though, Barcelona should have enough technical quality and experience to negotiate this tie and to finish the job in the Nou Camp.
Prediction: 1-2

Olympiakos v Bordeaux
Greece's most regular participants in the knockout stages of the Champions League take on the reigning French champions and this will be an awkward match for Laurent Blanc's side, given that Olympiakos are always strong on their home turf, helped by a vociferous support. The important thing is that Bordeaux managed to retain their best players during January and that gives them the best possible chance of advancing from this tie. Olympiakos should have former Blackburn striker Matt Derbyshire available to them again after a spell out injured. Bordeaux showed in the group phase that they are not afraid taking on quality opposition and as long as they do not concede an early goal and then wilt, I see them having enough quality to grab a draw and then complete the job in the south of France.
Prediction: 1-1

Inter Milan v Chelsea
The blue riband tie of the week sees the much anticipated return of the Special One to take on his former employers with whom he achieved much success. The acrimonious way in which he left though will ensure he is very motivated to plot Chelsea's demise from this season's competition. Mourinho's present employers have much to prove in the Champions League, having continually stumbled at this stage in recent years. Inter have shown the pragmatic and efficient qualities befitting a Mourinho side this season without being spectacular. By contrast, Chelsea have at times been excellent but on other occasions fallible and their away form has been a concern. Inter have not been defeated in the San Siro under Mourinho's watch but their hopes of establishing an advantage will depend on how their back line can cope with the power of Didier Drogba, who has been in magnificent form. This has the look of a tie in which both teams will set up cautiously and not give much away, with the game being particularly congested in midfield. I therefore see only one goal, which I can see going to the home team to put the second leg in the melting pot.
Prediction: 1-0

CSKA Moscow v Sevilla
The early kick-off on Wednesday sees Sevilla travel to opponents currently experiencing their off-season. CSKA showed some attacking qualities in the group stages, in which their highlight was a 3-3 draw at Old Trafford. Sevilla's passage to this stage was easier due to being a straightforward qualifying group. The Andalucians' preparation for this match was not helped by finishing their weekend La Liga match with 9 men and so they could tire noticeably in the latter stages of the match in Russia. By the same token, CSKA's lack of match fitness is likely to have an effect on them in the final 20 minutes. Due to this and because both teams have a natural inclination to attack, I see this being an open, entertaining affair with the honours shared.
Prediction: 2-2

Sunday 14 February 2010

Champions League last 16 previews and predictions

This week sees the return of the Champions League after its mid-season break and there are four quite interesting match-ups, with two ties involving English teams. Here is my take on how these matches will shape up:

AC Milan v Manchester United
I think that the key to this tie is going to be the ability of Manchester United to dictate the tempo against Milan. If you look at their recent matches, United have reverted back to playing 4-3-3 and looking to exploit teams on the counter attack with their pace and interchangeable wingers. I would expect United to deploy this formation against Milan, particularly given the ageing spine of the Milan team. Milan will look to try and slow the game down and get the likes of Pirlo to orchestrate the game from deep positions. United have a dreadful record in the San Siro stadium against Milan previously and I expect they will be content to grab a draw with an away goal to set them up for the 2nd leg. I expect United to get what they came for.
Prediction: 1-1

Lyon v Real Madrid
In recent seasons, Lyon have generally gone further in the competition than Madrid and they have beaten them a couple of times in the group stages. But that was then and this is now, and with the loss of players like Juninho and Benzema in recent times, I do not think Lyon are as much of a danger to Madrid's star names as they would have been a year or two ago. Lyon remain difficult to beat at home, but Madrid have started to pick up momentum since the turn of the year and must feel as though they are equipped to go a long way in the competition this season. I particularly feel that Cristiano Ronaldo is keen to take his new employers far in this competition and so if Real bring their recent form into this match, I can see them inflicting a rare European home loss on the hosts, standing them in good stead for the second leg.
Prediction: 1-2

Bayern Munich v Fiorentina
These teams' seasons have been going in different directions since the beginning of 2010. Bayern have enjoyed their customary upturn in form after the New Year and are currently level on points with Bayer Leverkusen at the top of the Bundesliga. By contrast, Fiorentina are having a miserable run in Serie A and are currently eleventh in the standings. Bayern seem to have been buoyed by their victory in Turin that saw them through to the knockout phase at Juventus's expense and the return of Franck Ribery has greatly boosted them. They are scoring plenty of goals at the moment and are always strong at the Allianz Arena. By contrast, Fiorentina are poor travellers with far less Champions League experience than their opponents. Fiorentina need to score an away goal to stand any chance of progressing, but I can only see a comfortable Bayern Munich victory on all known form.
Prediction: 3-0

Porto v Arsenal
I feel that some pundits are guilty of underestimating Porto, who gave Manchester United a very hard match in the quarter-finals last season. They may be short of star names but they are always difficult to beat at home and possess plenty of technical ability in their team. Arsenal's morale will have been boosted by their win against Liverpool in midweek, but the win could not mask a mediocre performance. In keeping with their previous two matches against Manchester United and Chelsea, they enjoyed plenty of the ball but created only a handful of shots on target. Their lack of incisiveness in the final third of the pitch is a criticism that could also be levelled at Porto at times, and so I envisage this to be a low scoring match, although I expect the template of the game to be pretty open. If Arsenal can score an away goal, it would put them in a very strong position for the 2nd leg, in the knowledge that they beat Porto 4-0 at the Emirates just last season. But I am not entirely convinced by Arsenal's ability to score a goal with Arshavin playing centrally and so I fancy Porto to shade the first leg and leave the tie on a knife-edge.
Prediction: 1-0