Happy New Year everyone. I hope 2010 has been good to you all so far and that you are not experiencing the New Year blues. Scientists claim that the week just gone is the most depressing of the year. Let's look at the positives, another week and most of us should have received our first pay packet of the new decade and it isn't too long now until summer comes.
Well, I trust you have all been sticking rigidly to your New Year's resolutions and have become finer citizens as a result. Me, well, I didn't make any resolutions. That way I figured that there was no expectation and I wouldn't feel guilty if I had already broken them by the time the Christmas decorations came down.
As ever quite a few things have been going on to talk about. But the blog title may give a clue as to what the main topic of discussion will be.
Cadbury's being bought by Kraft
The main talking point in the business pages over the past week or so has been the news that the Cadbury's confectionery group has been bought out by Kraft, the American foods company with a vast portfolio of brands, but which is possibly most well known for its Philadelphia cheese spread brand. Kraft had been an active suitor of Cadbury's for several months and they had made a number of "hostile" takeover bids, which Cadbury's management had previously rebuffed. However, a bid of around £12 billion ultimately proved too enticing to shareholders who voted for the takeover to be accepted, no doubt having visions of the killing they could make on their shares. One wonders whether a Wispaing campaign prompted the sudden change of heart.
The general consensus of opinion appears to be that this is a victory for cut-throat Capitalist gains but a kick in the teeth for British industry and for Cadbury's staff. Cadbury's is intrinsically linked to the West Midlands area in which it originated and its Bournville operation is one of Cadbury's strongest emblems. The Bournville name is so associated with Cadbury's that they even lended its name to one of its small chocolate bars. To this day, the firm remains one of the leading employers in the West Midlands and so this takeover by an American company, renowned for closing plants in order to improve efficiency leaves many staff pondering their job security. Just a few years after the closure of Rover, the spectre of potential unemployment hangs large over England's second city.
On first impressions, it would seem that Cadbury's were coerced into selling themselves due to the guerilla style tactics adopted by Kraft. Certainly, it would seem that the hierarchy within Cadbury's did all they could to resist the lure of their American cousins. Months of stand offs took place with the irresistible force of Kraft's intentions coming to no avail against the immovable object of Cadbury's. This begs two questions. What was it that meant Kraft kept persisting? What was in it for them, especially considering the great expense to which Kraft were prepared to go in order to snare Bournville's finest? Secondly, what was it that changed for Cadbury's? What do they get from their union with the powerful American firm?
Dealing with the first question first, Kraft know that the power of the Cadbury's brand will enable them to conquer new markets. Cadbury's has such a powerful brand identity the world over and its portfolio of chocolate bars attract loyalty in many far flung outposts. Think of chocolate and the name of Cadbury's is one of the first words that you would associate with the brown foodstuff. Kraft, by contrast, has relatively minimal presence in the confectionery markets. It acquired Terry's, the English confectioner famous for its Chocolate Orange and All Gold products, in 1993 but with due respect, Terry's is a comparatively small fish against the Leviathan prsence that Cadbury's has in the global chocolate market. Cadbury's previous acquisition of chewing gum producers also allows Kraft to enter another market it does not presently operate in.
The Cadbury's name is all powerful and the quality of its products is well renowned but the principles of the company which are ingrained in the company are what makes it special. Thomas Cadbury, like Joseph Rowntree his fellow confectioner, was a Quaker who believed in Puritan principles of giving back something to people in society who were deprived. Hence these names being given to charitable trusts that still operate to this day. Although the Rowntrees name still appears on many chocolate bars, they have been part of the Nestle empire for the past decade, a Nestle name that is much maligned due to its perceived Capitalist attitudes.
People will see that there is a danger of Cadbury's heading the same way now that it has been acquired by Kraft. However, I think Kraft should do well to remember the power of the Cadbury's brand and what it stands for. Although Cadbury's is now part of the Kraft "family", many of Cadbury's leading branded goods are just so associated with the Cadbury's name that they should adopt a standalone approach to the branding of these products. Using the Cadbury's name will enable Kraft to enter new markets and new regions and so Kraft's marketing men should ensure that they make the most of the good name they have acquired for the princely sum of £12 billion.
To go back to my questions, I asked what would be in it for Cadbury's by them entering into this marriage of convenience with Kraft. Well, it would seem that although Cadbury's is largely the market leader for confectionery in the UK and a fair chunk of continental Europe, in other parts of the world, such as the Americas and the Far East, it finds itself lagging behind Mars in terms of market share. Although Kraft does not have much experience in the confectionery markets, it has good background knowledge of these regions due to the success of some of its other food products. This knowledge appears to be the vote swinger and could present a number of new opportunities for Cadbury's and for the diversification of the brand into new products.
There are concerns though, both for those directly affected by this deal and those indirectly so. Kraft have shown in the past that they are quite willing to make efficiency cuts and relocations in order to save money. Terry's chocolates for example are no longer produced in the original home town of the confectioner, York, but instead they are produced in the world's very hotbed of chocolate products, Poland. Rumour has it that Kraft agreed a deal to set up chocolate factories in downtown Krakow in exchange for 100 plumbers to be dispatched to the West Midlands, although this may just be a myth. Job cuts are likely to occur at some point, but there must be particular concern that the iconic Bournville could be closed down. Personally, I doubt this will happen, certainly not in the short term. Bournville is an important part of the Cadbury's brand and so if the plant is to be phased out, it will be done over time. That doesn't mean to say there won't be redundancies there. I expect this will be inevitable. What I do envisage happening is that other factories could be closed and it is certainly feasible that some relocations to Eastern Europe or Asia could be part of the strategy.
On a wider point, it is a sad reality that there are very few British companies with a global profile that still exist due to their swallowing up by foreign direct investment. The British car market ceased to be some time ago, but within the banking and utility sectors there are very few major players that are wholly British owned now. This is something that we bemoan, after all Britain invented all of these things, didn't they? Chocolate? Tick. Banks? Ah yes. Cars? Of course, that Henry Ford was Dagenham born and bred. Ah, hang on.
Speaking of banks, the news that Kraft had been lent some money by the Royal Bank of Scotland to part finance their takeover was greeted with uproar in some quarters because of RBS being in Government hands and this deal seemingly not being in the national interest. Realistically though, the RBS would have had no business vetoing this deal. Regardless of whether a bank is privately or publicly owned, its only consideration when lending money should be whether the transaction poses too great a risk to them. So long as Kraft showed concrete evidence that its adoption of Cadbury's posed no major risk to its long term financial sustainability then RBS were perfectly entitled to lend its customer the money it needed. Once banks start getting involved in ethical concerns and not on what is a financially viable project then you get problems and that is why banks failed in the first place, hence some of them being put up for public ownership.
While it is sad that Cadbury's employees face an uncertain future due to the corporate muscle that Kraft have exercised, it does not need to be the end of the Cadbury's story. There are too many identifiable products that are so intrinsically part of the Cadbury's family and the fabric and ethos that added up to the Cadbury's name is too powerful for Kraft to shed after 200 years of heritage. Sadly there are casualties in every war, but it would be counter-productive for Kraft to be too gung-ho in its approach. Apart from the not inconsiderable financial motivations, it was for reasons of synergy that this union came to pass and the knowledge of markets that Kraft and Cadbury's can both impart is likely to ensure that both names continue to flourish for the foreseeable future, even if the ownership is no longer in British hands.
Jonathan Ross leaving the BBC
The news of Jonathan Ross's departure from the BBC did not elicit a great deal of surprise, although it did receive plenty of press and Internet message board scrutiny in the days that followed the announcement. The main question was whether Ross chose to leave before he was pushed in order to pursue greater autonomy and possibly far greater riches in pastures new, or alternatively, whether the BBC chose not to renew Ross's contract beyond the summer because they felt Ross's continued presence left them with a permanent souvenir, a millstone around the neck, from the absurdly overblown Sachsgate affair.
Whilst we can only speculate on the conversations and events that led to this privately conducted parting of the ways that was so paradoxically played out in the public eye, it would seem reasonable to conclude that Ross took his decision to leave before he was pushed, or before he was told in no uncertain terms that there would be no deal. By commenting that he never negotiated a new deal, this makes it appear that Ross made the decision to leave and that the BBC were willing to let their most prosperously remunerated employee move on to more creative freedom with no hard feelings.
The truth of course, is somewhat different to the euphemistic and cordial ending that Ross and the BBC execs would like to pass off as the gospel. From the BBC point of view, Ross's continued stay at the BBC after so many other names implicated in the Sachs affair sacrificed themselves has meant that the one time TV researcher has become a continual elephant in the room and it has been becoming increasingly apparent from the media coverage amongst the BBC's most hostile enemies that Ross would have remained so for as long as he was on the BBC payroll and appearing across their network.
From Ross's end, the aftermath of Sachsgate and the culture of compliance that it created is that he has been stifled of creative freedom. In short, he has been muzzled and an off-the-cuff performer like Ross is not going to work well in such conditions. Firstly, his chat show was heavily edited upon Ross's return from suspension at the beginning of last year, with neither Ross or his guests allowed to swear even mildly on the show. Although there have still been some very interesting and amusing interviews conducted, Ross's interview style has suffered a little for becoming too stiff, with Ross not always able to relax and be himself.
Furthermore, it is likely that the straw that broke the camel's back was the decision to pre-record Ross's Saturday morning Radio 2 show. Personally, I thought this was a big mistake and it was a decision that neither Ross nor his radio show have recovered from. The great selling point of Ross's show was the spontaneity and energy that his live radio programme offered. Yes, at times there were caustic comments and banter that would have upset the type of people that go out of their way to look for offence. But the show was the perfect way to lie in on a Saturday morning and get you in the mood for the weekend. Once the show became pre-recorded, the edginess and spontaneity associated with the show was drained out.
In public, Ross seemed unabashed so far as this was concerned and even said that it was good that he could pre-record the show as he could spend more time with his children at the weekend. In private though, you somewhat suspect that Ross knew this arrangement could not be sustained. There was no comeback and the longer he stayed at the BBC, the more he would be muzzled. A parting was to be inevitable, the question would just be when.
This is not a bad time for Jonathan Ross to make a career change. Ross is 50 years old this year and he can look upon himself as one of television's great survivors, given that he first appeared on our screens over 20 years ago as the host of Channel 4's late night chat show "The Last Resort". Ross is sometimes perceived as an arrogant man by some sections of the public, but the name of his first television project is actually a prime example of his self-depracating nature, given that he only stepped in front of the camera when everyone else who had been asked had said no.
Due to the current economic situation that is being faced the world over, I think you will see a shift from the days when top light entertainment and comedy stars will enter in to "golden handcuffs" arrangements with networks and you will see more performers wanting the autonomy to pick and choose what projects they take on with whom without being tied to a contract. The BBC continues to have some performers that are in a tied arrangement, most notably Graham Norton, but I would anticipate there being a reduction in these arrangements over the course of time.
There has been some talk that Jonathan Ross's future may be outside of this country and that he may particularly be courted Stateside. After all, Ross has interviewed many of Hollywood's A-listers on both his chat show and on the Film programme and appears to have a good rapport with his subjects. I can see this school of thought, especially as the template for Ross's chat show is far closer to the type of talk show that David Letterman and Jay Leno have presented over the pond than it is to the more conventional, stiff Parky-esque British template of chat. However, Ross is a huge animal lover who owns three dogs as well as a number of other exotic pets and so I doubt he would want to contemplate putting pets in quarantine in order to crack America for a sustained period. Maybe like Cat Deeley he could divide his time between both countries, but I think there will be other projects to occupy his time closer to home.
From looking around the message boards, it seems that Ross has made a lot of enemies with the British public and it may take time for him to rebuild his reputation. Perhaps with that in mind, his best approach may be to avoid ubiquity in the months after his BBC contract expires in the summer but instead to pick and choose his projects carefully. There are certain types of show that Ross has not really ventured into before, such as travel programmes and game shows (apart from the famous Only Fools & Horses Christmas special) and I could see his agent being approached to ask for Ross's involvement in these types of show. The programme that Ross did on Japanese culture for BBC3 a few years ago was both informative and entertaining and I could see him using his wit and irreverence to good effect in travelog type programmes in the way Clive James used to.
Ross's main passions though are the movies and comics and so you would expect his future career projects to have a focus on these subjects. The BBC may have dumped Ross for now, but there is definitely a market for other networks to approach Ross with a view to him presenting a film interview type programme. Some of Ross's best interviews have been with film stars and his knowledge of the big screen is exceptional. Just because the door at the BBC has closed, I very much doubt that we have seen the end of the Jonathan Ross story. It might just be that like Noel Edmonds, he spends some time in the wilderness before enjoying a renaissance in his mid-50s as a result of landing a project that is a hit with the British public, as Edmonds managed with Deal Or No Deal.
At the moment, Ross is a convenient emblem for what is wrong with the country among people who are down on their luck. Just as the bankers are despised for being paid obscene bonuses when their investments have failed, so Ross's stock has dropped because he has been identified as overpaid, overrated and over here. Overexposure is more of an issue now than in the past due to the intense cult of celebrity that exists in the media. But you do not just become a bad performer overnight and a change of environment with greater licence to be himself again might just give the great JR the kickstart his career is in need of.
Sunday 24 January 2010
BRIT Award predictions 2010
The past week has seen the BRIT Award nominations for 2010 take place, with the results to be declared on 16 February at the ceremony at Earls Court. In general, the shortlist appears a little lightweight and predictable this year, with pop and dance acts seemingly faring better than indie and rock acts. This reflects the dominance of these genres in the charts during 2009.
In order to build up a sense of anticipation (and to build up my sense of self-importance!), I have decided to provide my lowdown on who is likely to walk away with some decorative pieces for their coffee table or en-suite lavatory, while also stating who I would dish out the gongs to. Let's just hope I don't upset any Russian Pet Shop Boys fans this year. Enjoy!
BEST BRITISH FEMALE SOLO ARTIST (Bat For Lashes, Florence & The Machine, Leona Lewis, Lily Allen & Pixie Lott)
All of these artists have attracted a fair amount of coverage in the past year. Leona Lewis in particular would win a Brit Award for ubiquity. Pixie Lott has enjoyed plenty of chart success in 2009 so I guess she is a frontrunner. I don't like either Lily Allen or her music but she attracted plenty of coverage last year and her album sold well. Florence and her machine have been the darlings of the music press over the past year and her album was one of the top sellers last year, so that suggests she is likely to win this. Brighton's very own Bat For Lashes aka Natasha Khan though released one of my favourite albums last year and so she would get my vote.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Florence & The Machine MY SELECTION: Bat For Lashes
BEST BRITISH MALE SOLO ARTIST (Calvin Harris, Dizzee Rascal, Mika, Paolo Nutini, Robbie Williams)
A curious list of nominees here, not least because I didn't realise Mika was even British! According to Wikipedia, he was born in Beirut. As per usual, you sense that the Brits committee had difficulty drawing up a shortlist for this category. Calvin Harris and Dizzee Rascal have had the most chart success over the past year which puts them in the running to win this. Robbie Williams is being given the lifetime achievement award which is usually a polite way of saying that the music you are releasing now should only be played to scare away stray cats. Paolo Nutini has released a couple of good tracks although I'm not sure he is cut out to sing reggae as he tries on his latest effort. Not a vintage renewal of this award, but I think Calvin might just edge out Dizzee.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Calvin Harris MY SELECTION: Paolo Nutini
BEST BRITISH BREAKTHROUGH ACT (Florence & The Machine, Friendly Fires, JLS, La Roux, Pixie Lott)
This looks like a hard one to call as you have a couple of acts that will appeal to teenage girls in the form of JLS and La Roux and then you have a couple of acts that the critics quite like in the form of Florence & The Machine and Friendly Fires. So it really depends on which audience is going to influence the vote the most. Florence has got nominations elsewhere and she will walk away with best British female at least, so I think this might be an award she misses out on here. I'm not sure JLS winning would do the street cred of the Brits much good, although it could cause a crush in the mosh pit. I've got a sneaking suspicion that La Roux might walk away with the honours here.
PREDICTION TO WIN: La Roux MY SELECTION: Florence & The Machine
BEST BRITISH GROUP (Doves, Friendly Fires, JLS, Kasabian, Muse)
I'm trying hard to suppress laughter in seeing that JLS have been nominated for this category. In saying that, it's not really a vintage shortlist in comparison with previous years. The only album out of these acts that I bought last year was by Doves and it was one of those albums I listened to a couple of times and then didn't bother with again, certainly not as good as their previous album. I like Muse but didn't buy their last album, but they have released a couple of good singles cuts. With Oasis having called it a day in a sea of acrimony, Kasabian have entered stage right and they released a couple of good singles too in 'Fire' and 'Underdog'. Acts that are quite popular live tend to do quite well in this category, so maybe JLS have a chance after all! But Kasabian and Muse are both well regarded as live acts, so I think the winner comes from one of those 2 and as Kasabian's album sold particularly well last year, I'd take them to edge it.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Kasabian MY SELECTION: Muse
BEST BRITISH ALBUM (Dizzee Rascal, Florence & The Machine, Kasabian, Lily Allen, Paolo Nutini)
The best British album of last year in my opinion was 'To Lose My Life' by White Lies, but that doesn't appear to have been nominated. What a travesty. I guess it is a sign of the times because for the first time in a good number of years, I don't own any of the albums that have been nominated. That makes it difficult to offer much of a meaningful appraisal on who should win. Kasabian and Florence were responsible for the best sellers last year and so that suggests to me that one of those two acts will probably win. I can't really see Dizzee Rascal winning, that would be a bonkers decision and I don't have the fear that Lily Allen will win (did you see what I did there, did you?). Again, a close call, but I think this might be Florence's second award of the night.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Florence & The Machine MY SELECTION: Erm....I guess Kasabian as it's the only album out of these I've really heard anything of
BEST BRITISH SINGLE (Alesha Dixon: Breathe Slow, Alexandra Burke: Bad Boys, Cheryl Cole: Fight For This Love, Joe McElderry: The Climb, JLS: Beat Again, La Roux: In For The Kill, Lily Allen: The Fear, Pixie Lott: Mama Do, Taio Cruz: Break Your Heart, Tinchy Stryder: Number 1)
As usual, the best single seems to be largely influenced by pop songs. Would I be right in thinking that these nominees are largely determined by the best selling singles of the year? Alexandra Burke would win the award for most annoying song of the year and The Climb was such a good song that it got outsold for Christmas number 1 by a metal song that was originally released 17 years before. Cheryl Cole is bound to be in with a shout for this, as will Tinchy Stryder and Pixie Lott. But I think this award will provide JLS with their moment of destiny.
PREDICTION TO WIN: JLS MY SELECTION: I wouldn't pick any of them, but The Fear is the best of a bad bunch
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEMALE ARTIST (Lady GaGa, Ladyhawke, Norah Jones, Rihanna, Shakira)
Always nice to see Shakira nominated, not least so we can see whether a certain part of her anatomy are as humble as mountains. Rihanna's presence would not be too shabby either. I didn't realise Norah Jones had released anything for about 5 years but I can't imagine I missed anything. I've got Ladyhawke's album. If you haven't heard of her, check her out, she's an Australian singer-songwriter with a sort of electronica/80s feel to her sound and she released a particularly good song called 'My Delirium'. The fact I'm telling you all this though informs you that she won't win the award. There can only be one winner though. Lady GaGa had an incredible 2009 in terms of commercial success and she's performing on the night, she won't be going home empty handed. I imagine her acceptance speech will be worth seeing, as will her outfit.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Lady GaGa MY SELECTION: Ladyhawke
BEST INTERNATIONAL MALE ARTIST (Bruce Springsteen, Jay-Z, Eminem, Michael Buble, Seasick Steve)
As ever, this category should be sponsored by Stannah Stairlifts or Saga Holidays given that both Bruce Springsteen and Seasick Steve would probably qualify for a bus pass. Let's hope that the latter chooses to fly to the ceremony. Michael Buble seems to be one of these crooners who is popular with the ladies, so he's not without a chance. But that then leaves us with the battle of the rappers and although Eminem returned to the fold last year, Jay-Z seemed to be everywhere. When he wasn't recording his own material, he was collaborating on other people's. His work ethic probably gives him the nod for this award.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Jay-Z MY SELECTION: Jay-Z
BEST INTERNATIONAL ALBUM (Animal Collective, Black Eyed Peas, Empire Of The Sun, Jay-Z, Lady GaGa)
As with the best British album, for the first time in several years, I own none of the nominees in this category either. Must say that I'm surprised U2's album didn't make the shortlist though, as it was their best album for quite some time. Animal Collective are one of those bands that critics talk up a lot but I've not heard any of their material. Not really familiar with Empire Of The Sun either, other than the film with a young Christian Bale in the lead role. Black Eyed Peas had another good year and they are not without a chance here, but I expect the assembled audience will be going GaGa again.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Lady GaGa MY SELECTION: Don't care
BEST INTERNATIONAL BREAKTHROUGH ACT (Animal Collective, Daniel Merriweather, Empire Of The Sun, Lady GaGa, Taylor Swift)
You know who aside, these artists all made such an impact in breaking through last year that I barely heard any of their material. Daniel Merriweather and Taylor Swift have their followers and the other 2 bands may well go on to bigger and better things, but there is a certain air of inevitability about who will be winning this award. Hat-trick for the poker faced oddball.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Lady GaGa MY SELECTION: Pass
CRITICS' CHOICE (Ellie Goulding, Delphic, Marina & The Diamonds)
Not sure if this award has already been decided, but I remember Florence & The Machine won this last year before the ceremony took place. Given that, presumably Marina & The Diamonds must stand a good chance this time. Ellie Goulding just came top of the BBC's 10 acts to follow this year, so that must give her a very good chance too. Judging by how last year's winner fared in the award nominations this year, whoever wins is likely to be up for some of the main awards next year.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Ellie Goulding MY SELECTION: Ellie Goulding
OUTSTANDING CONTRIBUTION (Robbie Williams)
I suppose you tend to forget how long Robbie's been around now. His first solo song was released in 1996 and his first album came out the following year, plus if you include all his early Take That work then he's been in the industry for nearly 20 years. His past 2 or 3 albums have been pretty mediocre from what I've heard of them and I wouldn't say I was a massive fan of his earlier stuff, but he has always been about his live performances rather than someone who releases great albums that live long in the memory. In terms of showmen, he's always managed to put bums on seats and made money for the record execs, so given that this is their awards showpiece, they were bound to show their gratitude sooner or later.
BEST BRITS ALBUM OF LAST 30 YEARS (Coldplay: Rush Of Blood To The Head, Dido: No Angel, Dire Straits: Brothers In Arms, Duffy: Rockferry, Keane: Hopes & Fears, Oasis: Morning Glory, Phil Collins: No Jacket Required, Sade: Diamond Life, The Verve: Urban Hymns, Travis: The Man Who)
As this is apparently the 30th BRIT Awards, there are a couple of extra categories this year and the first of them is the best album of the past 30 years. Considering some of the great British albums that could have been chosen but weren't, you have to wonder about the sanity of the shortlisting panel for suggesting Phil Collins and Duffy for an award that marks the best of music in the past 30 years. Phil Collins might just be eligible to win an award for best portrayal of a Great Train Robber on film, but there is very little else he is best at. As a fan of both Coldplay and Oasis, I would question whether the albums nominated are those respective bands' best albums. There is a case for Definitely Maybe and X&Y being their best work. Nonetheless, these albums are their most commercially successful which is why they are here. I think 'The Man Who' is an excellent album and would come very close to winning this. But if pushed, Morning Glory would have to get the honours.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Oasis MY SELECTION: Oasis
THE BRIT HITS 30 - BEST BRITS LIVE PERFORMANCE
Some rather odd nominations in this category which is for the best live performance at the BRIT Awards in its 30 year history. As you'd expect, Robbie Williams, Take That, Michael Jackson and Paul McCartney are all nominated. Rather more surprisingly, Bros and the Spice Girls are also nominated. Coldplay's performance of Clocks a few years ago rocked and is certainly a contender. I also remember the Scissor Sisters set being well received a few years back, so they have a chance. And of course, how can we forget Kylie? But I'd go for Michael Jackson, although not so much for his performance but because Jarvis Cocker's stage invasion which is one of those iconic BRIT Award moments. I'm not so certain the judging panel have a sense of humour though, so I expect this award may be heading elsewhere.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Paul McCartney MY SELECTION: Michael Jackson with special credit to Jarvis Cocker's derriere, just edging out Kylie and her, erm, derriere
In order to build up a sense of anticipation (and to build up my sense of self-importance!), I have decided to provide my lowdown on who is likely to walk away with some decorative pieces for their coffee table or en-suite lavatory, while also stating who I would dish out the gongs to. Let's just hope I don't upset any Russian Pet Shop Boys fans this year. Enjoy!
BEST BRITISH FEMALE SOLO ARTIST (Bat For Lashes, Florence & The Machine, Leona Lewis, Lily Allen & Pixie Lott)
All of these artists have attracted a fair amount of coverage in the past year. Leona Lewis in particular would win a Brit Award for ubiquity. Pixie Lott has enjoyed plenty of chart success in 2009 so I guess she is a frontrunner. I don't like either Lily Allen or her music but she attracted plenty of coverage last year and her album sold well. Florence and her machine have been the darlings of the music press over the past year and her album was one of the top sellers last year, so that suggests she is likely to win this. Brighton's very own Bat For Lashes aka Natasha Khan though released one of my favourite albums last year and so she would get my vote.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Florence & The Machine MY SELECTION: Bat For Lashes
BEST BRITISH MALE SOLO ARTIST (Calvin Harris, Dizzee Rascal, Mika, Paolo Nutini, Robbie Williams)
A curious list of nominees here, not least because I didn't realise Mika was even British! According to Wikipedia, he was born in Beirut. As per usual, you sense that the Brits committee had difficulty drawing up a shortlist for this category. Calvin Harris and Dizzee Rascal have had the most chart success over the past year which puts them in the running to win this. Robbie Williams is being given the lifetime achievement award which is usually a polite way of saying that the music you are releasing now should only be played to scare away stray cats. Paolo Nutini has released a couple of good tracks although I'm not sure he is cut out to sing reggae as he tries on his latest effort. Not a vintage renewal of this award, but I think Calvin might just edge out Dizzee.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Calvin Harris MY SELECTION: Paolo Nutini
BEST BRITISH BREAKTHROUGH ACT (Florence & The Machine, Friendly Fires, JLS, La Roux, Pixie Lott)
This looks like a hard one to call as you have a couple of acts that will appeal to teenage girls in the form of JLS and La Roux and then you have a couple of acts that the critics quite like in the form of Florence & The Machine and Friendly Fires. So it really depends on which audience is going to influence the vote the most. Florence has got nominations elsewhere and she will walk away with best British female at least, so I think this might be an award she misses out on here. I'm not sure JLS winning would do the street cred of the Brits much good, although it could cause a crush in the mosh pit. I've got a sneaking suspicion that La Roux might walk away with the honours here.
PREDICTION TO WIN: La Roux MY SELECTION: Florence & The Machine
BEST BRITISH GROUP (Doves, Friendly Fires, JLS, Kasabian, Muse)
I'm trying hard to suppress laughter in seeing that JLS have been nominated for this category. In saying that, it's not really a vintage shortlist in comparison with previous years. The only album out of these acts that I bought last year was by Doves and it was one of those albums I listened to a couple of times and then didn't bother with again, certainly not as good as their previous album. I like Muse but didn't buy their last album, but they have released a couple of good singles cuts. With Oasis having called it a day in a sea of acrimony, Kasabian have entered stage right and they released a couple of good singles too in 'Fire' and 'Underdog'. Acts that are quite popular live tend to do quite well in this category, so maybe JLS have a chance after all! But Kasabian and Muse are both well regarded as live acts, so I think the winner comes from one of those 2 and as Kasabian's album sold particularly well last year, I'd take them to edge it.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Kasabian MY SELECTION: Muse
BEST BRITISH ALBUM (Dizzee Rascal, Florence & The Machine, Kasabian, Lily Allen, Paolo Nutini)
The best British album of last year in my opinion was 'To Lose My Life' by White Lies, but that doesn't appear to have been nominated. What a travesty. I guess it is a sign of the times because for the first time in a good number of years, I don't own any of the albums that have been nominated. That makes it difficult to offer much of a meaningful appraisal on who should win. Kasabian and Florence were responsible for the best sellers last year and so that suggests to me that one of those two acts will probably win. I can't really see Dizzee Rascal winning, that would be a bonkers decision and I don't have the fear that Lily Allen will win (did you see what I did there, did you?). Again, a close call, but I think this might be Florence's second award of the night.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Florence & The Machine MY SELECTION: Erm....I guess Kasabian as it's the only album out of these I've really heard anything of
BEST BRITISH SINGLE (Alesha Dixon: Breathe Slow, Alexandra Burke: Bad Boys, Cheryl Cole: Fight For This Love, Joe McElderry: The Climb, JLS: Beat Again, La Roux: In For The Kill, Lily Allen: The Fear, Pixie Lott: Mama Do, Taio Cruz: Break Your Heart, Tinchy Stryder: Number 1)
As usual, the best single seems to be largely influenced by pop songs. Would I be right in thinking that these nominees are largely determined by the best selling singles of the year? Alexandra Burke would win the award for most annoying song of the year and The Climb was such a good song that it got outsold for Christmas number 1 by a metal song that was originally released 17 years before. Cheryl Cole is bound to be in with a shout for this, as will Tinchy Stryder and Pixie Lott. But I think this award will provide JLS with their moment of destiny.
PREDICTION TO WIN: JLS MY SELECTION: I wouldn't pick any of them, but The Fear is the best of a bad bunch
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEMALE ARTIST (Lady GaGa, Ladyhawke, Norah Jones, Rihanna, Shakira)
Always nice to see Shakira nominated, not least so we can see whether a certain part of her anatomy are as humble as mountains. Rihanna's presence would not be too shabby either. I didn't realise Norah Jones had released anything for about 5 years but I can't imagine I missed anything. I've got Ladyhawke's album. If you haven't heard of her, check her out, she's an Australian singer-songwriter with a sort of electronica/80s feel to her sound and she released a particularly good song called 'My Delirium'. The fact I'm telling you all this though informs you that she won't win the award. There can only be one winner though. Lady GaGa had an incredible 2009 in terms of commercial success and she's performing on the night, she won't be going home empty handed. I imagine her acceptance speech will be worth seeing, as will her outfit.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Lady GaGa MY SELECTION: Ladyhawke
BEST INTERNATIONAL MALE ARTIST (Bruce Springsteen, Jay-Z, Eminem, Michael Buble, Seasick Steve)
As ever, this category should be sponsored by Stannah Stairlifts or Saga Holidays given that both Bruce Springsteen and Seasick Steve would probably qualify for a bus pass. Let's hope that the latter chooses to fly to the ceremony. Michael Buble seems to be one of these crooners who is popular with the ladies, so he's not without a chance. But that then leaves us with the battle of the rappers and although Eminem returned to the fold last year, Jay-Z seemed to be everywhere. When he wasn't recording his own material, he was collaborating on other people's. His work ethic probably gives him the nod for this award.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Jay-Z MY SELECTION: Jay-Z
BEST INTERNATIONAL ALBUM (Animal Collective, Black Eyed Peas, Empire Of The Sun, Jay-Z, Lady GaGa)
As with the best British album, for the first time in several years, I own none of the nominees in this category either. Must say that I'm surprised U2's album didn't make the shortlist though, as it was their best album for quite some time. Animal Collective are one of those bands that critics talk up a lot but I've not heard any of their material. Not really familiar with Empire Of The Sun either, other than the film with a young Christian Bale in the lead role. Black Eyed Peas had another good year and they are not without a chance here, but I expect the assembled audience will be going GaGa again.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Lady GaGa MY SELECTION: Don't care
BEST INTERNATIONAL BREAKTHROUGH ACT (Animal Collective, Daniel Merriweather, Empire Of The Sun, Lady GaGa, Taylor Swift)
You know who aside, these artists all made such an impact in breaking through last year that I barely heard any of their material. Daniel Merriweather and Taylor Swift have their followers and the other 2 bands may well go on to bigger and better things, but there is a certain air of inevitability about who will be winning this award. Hat-trick for the poker faced oddball.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Lady GaGa MY SELECTION: Pass
CRITICS' CHOICE (Ellie Goulding, Delphic, Marina & The Diamonds)
Not sure if this award has already been decided, but I remember Florence & The Machine won this last year before the ceremony took place. Given that, presumably Marina & The Diamonds must stand a good chance this time. Ellie Goulding just came top of the BBC's 10 acts to follow this year, so that must give her a very good chance too. Judging by how last year's winner fared in the award nominations this year, whoever wins is likely to be up for some of the main awards next year.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Ellie Goulding MY SELECTION: Ellie Goulding
OUTSTANDING CONTRIBUTION (Robbie Williams)
I suppose you tend to forget how long Robbie's been around now. His first solo song was released in 1996 and his first album came out the following year, plus if you include all his early Take That work then he's been in the industry for nearly 20 years. His past 2 or 3 albums have been pretty mediocre from what I've heard of them and I wouldn't say I was a massive fan of his earlier stuff, but he has always been about his live performances rather than someone who releases great albums that live long in the memory. In terms of showmen, he's always managed to put bums on seats and made money for the record execs, so given that this is their awards showpiece, they were bound to show their gratitude sooner or later.
BEST BRITS ALBUM OF LAST 30 YEARS (Coldplay: Rush Of Blood To The Head, Dido: No Angel, Dire Straits: Brothers In Arms, Duffy: Rockferry, Keane: Hopes & Fears, Oasis: Morning Glory, Phil Collins: No Jacket Required, Sade: Diamond Life, The Verve: Urban Hymns, Travis: The Man Who)
As this is apparently the 30th BRIT Awards, there are a couple of extra categories this year and the first of them is the best album of the past 30 years. Considering some of the great British albums that could have been chosen but weren't, you have to wonder about the sanity of the shortlisting panel for suggesting Phil Collins and Duffy for an award that marks the best of music in the past 30 years. Phil Collins might just be eligible to win an award for best portrayal of a Great Train Robber on film, but there is very little else he is best at. As a fan of both Coldplay and Oasis, I would question whether the albums nominated are those respective bands' best albums. There is a case for Definitely Maybe and X&Y being their best work. Nonetheless, these albums are their most commercially successful which is why they are here. I think 'The Man Who' is an excellent album and would come very close to winning this. But if pushed, Morning Glory would have to get the honours.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Oasis MY SELECTION: Oasis
THE BRIT HITS 30 - BEST BRITS LIVE PERFORMANCE
Some rather odd nominations in this category which is for the best live performance at the BRIT Awards in its 30 year history. As you'd expect, Robbie Williams, Take That, Michael Jackson and Paul McCartney are all nominated. Rather more surprisingly, Bros and the Spice Girls are also nominated. Coldplay's performance of Clocks a few years ago rocked and is certainly a contender. I also remember the Scissor Sisters set being well received a few years back, so they have a chance. And of course, how can we forget Kylie? But I'd go for Michael Jackson, although not so much for his performance but because Jarvis Cocker's stage invasion which is one of those iconic BRIT Award moments. I'm not so certain the judging panel have a sense of humour though, so I expect this award may be heading elsewhere.
PREDICTION TO WIN: Paul McCartney MY SELECTION: Michael Jackson with special credit to Jarvis Cocker's derriere, just edging out Kylie and her, erm, derriere
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