World Snooker Championships - 1st round previews and predictions

Hi everyone.

Well, as you probably have gathered by now, I am something of a sporting enthusiast, albeit an enthusiast devoid of any natural talent on that front. But, this weekend sees the start of one of my favourite sporting televisual events of the year, namely the World Snooker Championships. There has always been something magical about the 17 days at the Crucible as far as I am concerned. I first remember watching the event as a 7 year old child and one of my first memories is of being allowed to stay up late to watch the conclusion of the 1985 'black ball decider' final between Steve Davis and Dennis Taylor. I was in the minority at the time in as much as the 'Ginger Magician' was my favourite player and so I was disappointed that he lost to the genial Ulsterman who wore his giant spectacles upside down!

The game has moved on a lot since those heady days and both of the 1985 finalists will be confined to commentary duties at this year's event, with Davis having failed to qualify for the televised stages. The sport's other elder statesman, Jimmy White, also misses out this year and so the senior figures in the tournament will be Peter Ebdon, 7 times winner Stephen Hendry, and Ronnie O'Sullivan. The Rocket will be particularly interesting to watch given that he almost pulled out of the tournament just last week, before having a change of heart. Flawed genius that he is, nonetheless, O'Sullivan remains his sport's box office draw card in the same way that Tiger Woods is to golf and Roger Federer is to tennis.

In this blog, I will preview the first round matches in draw order, and will offer my score prediction for each match-up. Here goes:

Neil Robertson v Judd Trump
You do not need to look very far to find the tie of the first round. Australian Neil Robertson is the defending champion at The Crucible and is bidding to become the first ever first-time champion to retain the World Championship since the event moved to Sheffield in 1977. He is also bidding to become the first player to successfully defend the title since Stephen Hendry won the last of his five in a row in 1996. With that burden of history already to consider, you then have to take into account that Robertson has been pitted against arguably the toughest unseeded player in the draw in 23 year old Bristolian, Judd Trump.

Trump's potential has been known about for 3 or 4 years now and he is a fearless attacking player. Reining in his instincts has just been his problem, particularly in shorter matches. However, Trump arrives in Sheffield having taken the first step towards realising his potential by winning his first ranking tournament, the China Open, a fortnight ago. In the final, Trump defeated Mark Selby, who is second favourite for the World Championships, which gives you an indication of the threat he poses to Robertson.

Both players like to go for their shots and there will be no Cliff Thorburn-esque hanging about in this match. Whoever comes out on top in the first session will likely have a pretty crucial advantage. As good as Trump's victory was in the China Open, however, a word of caution. That tournament is not always the best form guide to the World Championships. The players who get eliminated from it early are able to gear themselves up for the long haul in Sheffield with quality time on the practice table, while the players that advance furthest in the Orient, have a tendency to peak early.

Robertson will need to be at the top of his game to win this match, and although his season has been topsy-turvy, it is no different to his preparation heading to the Crucible 12 months ago where he was ultimately victorious. His whole season has been based towards successfully defending his world crown, and on that basis, I expect him to have the edge over a player playing at this venue for the first time in four years.
Prediction: Robertson 10-7 Trump

Marco Fu v Martin Gould
If Robertson-Trump is snooker's equivalent of Manchester United and Arsenal drawing each other in the third round of the FA Cup, then on first sighting, this has the look of an underwhelming tie between two mid-table Championship clubs. That does do something of a disservice to both players in action here, and only handful of ranking places separate Hong Kong's Marco Fu and Londoner Martin Gould.

Marco Fu is something of an enigmatic player, capable of beating anybody on his day, but also capable of crashing and burning to a club player. His recent seasons had seen more lows than highs until he reached the final of the UK Championships a couple of seasons ago. Fu then recorded a mediocre campaign last year before making a return to form by reaching the Masters final at Wembley in January and losing to Ding Junhui. However, the Masters does not carry any ranking points and so the reality is that Fu is heading to Sheffield fighting to keep his place in the world top 16, which gives him exemption to the televised stages of the major tournaments. An early exit here would pretty much seal his fate.

The bespectacled Martin Gould is unlikely to be a household name to snooker's casual observers but he has been an up-and-coming player for the past 18 months now. He perhaps first showcased his potential in this event 12 months ago when he reached the 2nd round before giving the eventual champion, Neil Robertson, the biggest scare he had all tournament. Gould led 11 frames to 5 going into the final session, before Robertson staged a dramatic recovery and eventually won through in the deciding frame. The incentive for Gould to win this match is that his 2nd round opponent could well be Robertson and a chance for revenge. Added to which, Gould is a contender to grab a top 16 place with a good run in the tournament.

This has the makings of a tight and nervy match. If Fu is at his best, then he should have the fluency to win through and the longer frame formats are generally to his liking. However, given the pressure on Fu with his top 16 place on the line and considering Gould has less to lose but a lot to gain, I see Gould setting up a rematch with his Australian nemesis of 12 months ago.
Prediction: Fu 8-10 Gould

Graeme Dott v Mark King
For those traditionalists that like a good old-fashioned scrap on the baize between 2 tactical players who value a good safety shot as much as sinking a long red off the lampshade, then this might well be the match for you. These 2 are seasoned match players who tend to play their best snooker when their back is against the wall. Their mantra is very much one of winning as ugly as is necessary.

That said, it is very easy to forget that the gritty Scotsman Dott has reached 3 World Championship finals. To put that into context, Dott has only won one other ranking tournament, so the Sheffield lights seem to bring the best out of him. Dott's World Championship was won in 2006, but he played the best snooker of his career last year in reaching his third final and losing to Robertson. Whereas Dott won in 2006 with very cagey, attritional play, last year he was knocking in frame winning breaks consistently and quickly, averaging under 20 seconds a shot.

This change in attitude owes much to a new perspective given that Dott suffered a period of depression away from the table. Dott's run to the final 12 months ago as an unseeded player propelled him back in to the world's top 10, but you sense from now on that Dott will play with the shackles off. Meanwhile, his Essex opponent's predicament is the exact opposite with King having dropped out of the top 16 after he lost in a deciding frame to former practice partner, Steve Davis, at this stage last year in a match that was excruciatingly painful to watch.

Dott's record in this tournament marks him down as favourite, but King has a knack of dragging good players down to his level and knocking them out of their rhythm. He defeated Mark Selby in the first round in 2008 when Selby came into the tournament as the previous year's runner-up and he thrives on being the underdog. On that basis, I see this match heading the distance and if King's will is stronger, I fancy him to spring a surprise. Don't expect any quarter to be asked or given.
Prediction: Dott 9-10 King

Ali Carter v Dave Harold
This match sees the 2008 runner-up Ali Carter take on the oldest player in the tournament in Dave Harold, who at 44 years of age, is still in nappies in comparison to Steve Davis, who reached the quarter-finals last year at the age of 52.

Carter is the current world number 8 and as well as reaching the final in 2008, he also reached the semi-finals 12 months ago before succumbing to Neil Robertson. He also is one of a select band of players to have made a 147 at the Crucible, doing so en route to the final in 2008 where he lost to Ronnie O'Sullivan, who had also made a maximum in that year's tournament and so Carter had to share the maximum break prize. Carter has a good record in the longer frame formats, but he does have something of a reputation for choking at key moments.

His opponent has been a regular competitor at The Crucible for nearly 20 years and although for the large part, Harold has enjoyed a journeyman's career, he is a player who has reached 2 ranking finals during his long career and will be an obdurate opponent for the man they call the Captain.

Of those players discussed as a potential challenger in this year's tournament, Carter arrives in Sheffield a little off the radar, which is likely to suit the player who started this season by winning the Shanghai Masters, which at the time lifted him to number 3 in the world. A slump in form since has seen his ranking fall, but Carter always goes well at The Crucible and should have no problem in seeing off the veteran Harold.
Prediction: Carter 10-5 Harold

Ding Junhui v Jamie Burnett
For some time, the Chinese invasion on the green baize has been talked about by snooker's raconteurs. A world champion within five years would be a formality as millions of people tuned in the other side of the world to hail the new national hero. At the forefront of this invasion was Ding Junhui, who won the UK Championship in 2005 at the age of 17. For all Ding's promise though, there is one glaring omission from his trophy cabinet, namely the World Championship. In fact, Ding has never gone beyond the quarter-finals at the Crucible.

Why Ding has underachieved here is difficult to pinpoint. He certainly cannot attribute it to home sickness given that his home these days is in Sheffield. It would also seem simplistic to attribute this to any weakness in longer matches. Ding has twice won the UK Championship, which is second only to the Worlds in the number of frames played. Ding's lack of success here up to now really just seems to be a case of bad fortune mixed with a tendency to throw the towel in when things have not been going for him. Ding has certainly had some unkind draws here in previous years, which have not helped his cause.

But to win a World Championship, tough opponents need to be disposed of and so Ding will need to be mentally tough to last out the 2 and half week duration of this tournament. A turning point for Ding, however, may have come in the shape of his Masters victory in January. While the victory carried no ranking points, it will have exorcised demons from one of Ding's most crushing defeats at the hands of Ronnie O'Sullivan, with a partisan Wembley crowd revelling in his misfortune. That defeat took Ding a long time to recover from, so to return to Wembley and win the tournament 4 years later may well mark a significant watershed in his career.

Ding's first round opponent Jamie Burnett first played at the Crucible in 1996, when he lost in the first round to a player making his final World Championship appearance, Terry Griffiths. It took Burnett another 13 years to make it to Sheffield again, but he has enjoyed an Indian summer in his career in the past 2 seasons and reached his first ranking final in Shanghai at the start of the season.

While Burnett clearly deserves respect for the improvement he has made, he is unlikely to pose a stern test to Ding and the Chinese prodigy really should dispose of his Scottish opponent with ease if he has any aspirations to win this year's tournament.
Prediction: Ding 10-4 Burnett

Peter Ebdon v Stuart Bingham
If you were to ask me whether any of these matches would be less appealing than spending 2 hours in a lift with Alan Titchmarsh and Anne Widdecombe and the smell of garlic for company, then this would be the match I would pick out. Peter Ebdon, even now at the age of 40, is a difficult player to derive pleasure from watching given his unorthodox and sometimes downright ugly style of play, added to which he has one of those faces that you have an unfathomable urge to test your pugilistic skills out on. And then in the blue corner, enter Stuart Bingham, something of a nearly-but-not-quite player, who despite being an accomplished break builder is renowned as someone who prefers being a counter puncher, who relies on cleaning up on his opponent's mistakes.

Famous last words, but all of this adds up to a match that is likely to be quite scrappy and which will involve quite a lot of manoeuvring the cue ball from one tight position to another at the other end of the table. That said, Ebdon has had a decent campaign in which he has reached a couple of semi-finals and has returned to the top 16 after a spell of having to qualify for tournaments, during which some had questioned whether he would ponder retirement. As with some of the other hardened match players, Ebdon likes the long matches at snooker's amphitheatre.

Ebdon is not likely to intimidate Bingham though, who has some notable scalps on his CV. He defeated Crucible royalty in Steve Davis in the 1st round here a couple of years ago and more recently he thrashed fellow Essex boy Ronnie O'Sullivan in the last 32 of the UK Championship earlier in the season, a tournament which tends to serve as a good trial for the Worlds.

This looks likely to be another match in the Dott-King mould which goes to the wire and where it comes down to whose nerve holds when it counts. It is tempting to call Ebdon in that situation, but he makes more careless mistakes than he used to, and because of that, I slightly fancy Bingham to win through to the last 16.
Prediction: Ebdon 8-10 Bingham

Stephen Hendry v Joe Perry
A few years ago, this is a match that you might have expected to have seen later in the tournament. Hendry's legend, however much it is now consigned to the past, is guaranteed in these parts, but Joe Perry too is a player of some repute. Only 3 years ago, Perry narrowly lost in the semi-finals at the Crucible to Ali Carter. But rather than building the platform for Perry to advance to the next level, his fortunes have taken a major nosedive since.

As for the 7 times former world champion, he seems to have accepted that he is now at the twilight of his career and although in the main, he is nowhere near the supreme cueman of his 90s heyday, he still has his days of genius, such as a recent 5-0 win over Matthew Stevens in the China Open. There is also a principle that generally holds true which is that Hendry is a different proposition at the Crucible to what he is at any other venue. That is not to say that he will win the tournament, but Hendry has pulled off a couple of fine victories in the early rounds in recent years, such as a win over his friend Mark Williams 2 years ago.

While you would hope for a fluent match with plenty of sizeable breaks and good safety play, I think the recent form of the 2 players points towards a match with plenty of tension and unforced errors. From Perry's point of view, he will know that the Hendry he faces here is perfectly beatable and does not hold the aura of a decade ago. From Hendry's end, he will know that if he can get through a couple of rounds and build some momentum, he can dream about reaching another final at his second home.

The added incentive for Hendry is that a first round win is likely to mean a reunion with Mark Selby in the 2nd round, who defeated the Scot at the same stage 12 months ago, after Hendry had more than matched Selby in the first session, only to fall apart thereafter. I expect Hendry's desire to turn the tables on Selby to be the key motivational factor in getting past the awkward Perry at the one place that he still thinks he owns.
Prediction: Hendry 10-7 Perry

Mark Selby v Jimmy Robertson
The top half of the draw is completed with a match-up between a player who is second favourite with the bookmakers to win the tournament and a player who is a rank outsider. A match between a former World Championship finalist and a player who has never played on television before, never mind the Crucible Theatre.

This really would appear to be the David versus Goliath tie of the 1st round draw. However, one warning should be heeded which is that Jimmy Robertson should not be under-estimated, not least because he has had to play three matches just to get through qualifying to this stage, and in the final qualifying round, Robertson defeated a former World champion, Ken Doherty, to make it to Sheffield. Admittedly, Doherty's best days at the green table are quite some way behind him now, but Robertson still did well to claim his scalp.

'The Jester From Leicester' as Selby is sometimes nicknamed on account of his home town and his tendency to wisecrack during matches comes into the tournament having enjoyed a very consistent campaign and through his regular participation in the extra tournaments on the schedule this season, he has risen up to provisional world number 2 in the rankings. His status as the bookies' 2nd favourite is a reflection on his form, but also his proven suitability to longer matches. He reached the final as an unseeded player in 2007 and narrowly lost out to Graeme Dott in the semis 12 months ago. In between, in 2009, Selby went out in an astonishing quarter-final to eventual tournament winner John Higgins. A quarter-final loss for Selby in a tournament in which he had compiled 10 century breaks did not do his level of play justice.

Selby without a doubt is a major player in this year's tournament, but at 28, it is high time for him to shake off the 'nearlyman' tag. Sure, he has won 2 Masters tournaments which is an impressive feat, but these are non-ranking tournaments. As far as ranking pots are concerned, Selby only has a solitary Welsh Open trophy to his name so far, a tally that does not do him justice. Another close shave in the China Open occurred 2 weeks ago. Selby should have no problem getting past his rookie opponent, but he will have some tough matches to follow on this side of the draw.
Prediction: Selby 10-4 Robertson

Mark Williams v Ryan Day
There will be some divided loyalties over the Severn Bridge in this year's World Championship with no fewer than 5 Welshmen taking part in the televised stages of the tournament. Curiously, all 5 players find themselves in the bottom half of the draw and 40 per cent of the representatives from the Valleys are drawing battle lines in this match.

Southpaw Mark Williams is a double world champion, having won at the Crucible in 2000 and 2003. 2003 was the apogee of Williams' career given that during that year, he held the World Championship, Masters and UK Championship crowns all at the same time, which no-one has managed to do since. Then, at the very point that Williams' world should have been his oyster, curiously his career fell into alarming decline, and by 2007 he had slumped to world number 47 and was threatening retirement after suffering the igmoniny of losing in qualifying in front of 2 spectators and a dog.

As improbable as Williams' decline was, his resurgence has also been surprising but also very refreshing to see and Williams arrives in Sheffield with his best chance of winning a third World title for several years. If he gets his cueing arm flowing, it will take a very solid player to remove him from the tournament. In a recent tournament, Williams lost a first round match despite scoring four centuries! He also narrowly lost in the UK Championship final this season after his opponent John Higgins mounted an astonishing comeback from a seemingly hopeless position.

While Williams' career has been prone to wild fluctuations these past few years, it is easy to forget that his compatriot Ryan Day was also talked about as a future World champion a few years ago and was responsible for knocking out John Higgins in the 2nd round in 2008, when Higgins was the defending champion. Day was in snooker's top 16 for five years before dropping out of it last season and he has reached a couple of ranking finals. A victory here could be the kickstart that his career appears to need.

Of the players Williams could have faced in the first round, he would probably have wanted to avoid playing a fellow Welshman, but it will at least get his competitive juices going for the later rounds. The Ryan Day of 2 or 3 years ago would give Williams a very tough examination of his tournament credentials, but Day's weakness has always been his shot selection. He takes on shots that are far too bold when he should play safe, and Williams with his experience and nous should make him pay for any misjudgements that he makes.
Prediction: Williams 10-7 Day

Jamie Cope v Andrew Pagett
The third Welshman to enter the fray at the Crucible is 30 year old Andrew Pagett, who like Jimmy Robertson, is also making his Crucible bow. He is also Mark Williams' practice partner and so he has the added incentive of potentially setting up a second round match with his friend.

To make that possible, Pagett has to get past the man that I would mark down as the dangerous dark horse in this year's tournament. Jamie Cope has been around for the past 4 or 5 years now and has reached a couple of tournament finals, but he has particularly shown signs of progress this season and made it through to the semi-finals at the Masters, in what was his first appearance at the Wembley Arena. The Stoke player is nicknamed 'Shotgun' because of his quickfire style of play and he gave John Higgins a major scare in a second round match 2 years ago in which Higgins came from 12-10 down to win in a deciding frame on the way to winning his third title.

The new rolling ranking system has benefitted Cope this season and he is now established in the world's top 16 players, a status that his potential over the past few years suggested he warranted. Although there are some very tough players in the bottom section of the draw, Cope will be a difficult opponent for any of the big guns to face and if his potting game holds up and Cope does not get overly ambitious and go for needlessly wild shots against the top players, he could be a lively outsider in the business end of the tournament. I certainly expect him to be too powerful for Pagett in this match.
Prediction: Cope 10-5 Pagett

Mark Allen v Matthew Stevens
Another match-up which could perhaps have been played at a later stage in the tournament 2 or 3 years ago. Left-hander Mark Allen made it through to the semi-finals at the Crucible 2 years ago and made the last 8 here 12 months ago. As with many of his contemporaries, the fiery Ulsterman is a blistering long potter but also has a pretty impressive safety game.

His opponent Matthew Stevens has twice reached the final of the Worlds, losing to compatriot Mark Williams in 2000 and Shaun Murphy in 2005. Much like Mark Selby now, Stevens was something of a nearly player at his peak, but he always seemed to produce his best snooker in the longer frame formats. Stevens' problem was that he stopped winning matches in the shorter matches and consequently he fell out of snooker's top 16 three years ago, and he has not returned to the elite club since, and only occasionally shown any signs of his former glory since. A recent 5-0 whitewash to Stephen Hendry in China does not bode well.

Stevens' slump in fortunes seem to owe much to him not putting as many hours in on the practice table as he once did, due to the family commitments. This was also what resulted in Mark Williams' years in the wilderness, and if Stevens does not have the hunger he once had for the game, there are plenty of players around who certainly do have the appetite for success.

Stevens comes up against one such player here in the shape of Mark Allen. Allen is looking for his first major breakthrough as semi-finals have proven so far to be an insurmountable glass ceiling in his progress towards world domination. Allen has the talent to win a World Championship, but questions persist as to whether he has the temperament. Stevens will give Allen a tough test first up, but if Allen's potting game is firing, he should have the ammunition to see off the Welsh wizard.
Prediction: Allen 10-6 Stevens

Stephen Maguire v Barry Hawkins
If it wasn't for the continued presence of Ronnie O'Sullivan, snooker's great enigma could well be Stephen Maguire. The Scotsman, like the Rocket, can on his day make the game appear easy to play when he is in full flow. However, when he is not focused and cannot get his game together, he can be surly and very frustrating to watch. For several years, Maguire has turned up as one of the players who could win the World Championship, but he seems no nearer to accomplishing that mission than he was 7 or 8 years ago. In fact, Maguire has never even made the final at the Crucible, despite having been world number 2 on more than one occasion that he has played here.

His first round opponent, Barry Hawkins, was ranked in the top 16 for all of one season some 5 years ago, but has largely been ranked in between 20th and 30th in the world ever since scaling those dizzy heights. Hawkins has been a regular qualifier for the Crucible in recent years, but has only made it past the first round on one occasion.

The attitude that I would take to this match is that there is only one player that can beat Stephen Maguire and that is Maguire himself. As long as he is switched on and keeps his head, he should have too much for Hawkins to deal with. The only way for Hawkins to win is for him to frustrate Maguire, keep him off the table and force him in to making mistakes and sealing his own fate. That is not beyond the realms of possibility, but I expect Maguire to take his place in the second round.
Prediction: Maguire 10-5 Hawkins

Shaun Murphy v Marcus Campbell
The 2005 world champion Shaun Murphy hails from Rotherham which is just up the road from the Crucible, so he should be guaranteed plenty of home support in the auditorium. Murphy's victory in the 2005 tournament was somewhat unexpected given that he was ranked number 48 in the world at the time, but he has since proven that his victory that year was no fluke by being a mainstay of the world's top 10 players pretty much ever since. The only surprise has been that he has not won more tournaments since, with just 2 further ranking tournaments to his name, including the 2008 UK Championship.

Murphy does, without question, thrive in the longer matches. He has a tendency to be a slow starter in matches, which can be very costly when matches are just the best of 5 or best of 9 frames. Whereas, he knows exactly how to pace himself in matches lasting for 2 or 3 sessions. He is also a pure potter and if his cue arm is flowing and he has his eye in, he could prove to be the immovable object in the bottom half of the draw.

What doesn't help Murphy is the draw because a first round win could well see him face Ronnie O'Sullivan in the second round, a player against whom Murphy has a wretched record. The fact that those 2 players could face each other in the last 16, seeded as they are 7th and 10th, is something of an indictment of the times and this is where Murphy has paid for losing in the early stages of the shorter format tournaments.

Marcus Campbell is a classic example of a snooker journeyman and whose career highlight came in 1998 when be beat fellow Scotsman Stephen Hendry 9-0 in a televised tournament. More recently, he scored a 147 in the Bahrain Championship in 2008. This suggests he is an awkward match player and although his ranking is over 30 places below his opponent's, this could be a closer match than you might first anticipate. Nonetheless, it is hard to see past a Murphy victory.
Prediction: Murphy 10-7 Campbell

Ronnie O'Sullivan v Dominic Dale
For people that do not follow the snooker scene on a regular basis, it will come as a shock to learn that the most naturally talented player of his generation pitches up at Sheffield this year ranked the world number 10. The last time that the Rocket was ranked so low he would have still been a teenager back in the mid-1990s, since when he has won three world titles. For such an outrageously gifted player to be ranked so low is almost criminal, but therein lies the constant enigma that is Ronnie O'Sullivan.

In fact, O'Sullivan appearing in the tournament is progress of sorts. Just a week ago, so disillusioned was he with life, that Chigwell's finest told his sport's governing body that he would not be participating, only to have a change of heart the next day. As O'Sullivan grows older, he seems to have less time for the longer tournaments and it is little surprise that his best results in a barren season have been in the short competitions which can hold his interest, such as the Premier League Snooker competition. There are off-table factors that have also played a part, such as a custody battle that O'Sullivan is involved in and also the release of his father from jail. This in particular will have been a major upheaval, given that it will have been the first time in O'Sullivan's adult life that his father will have been a free man.

The fact that Ronnie has turned up in Sheffield is encouraging, but it would take a major leap of faith to expect him to rediscover his magic and win the tournament. It has been some time since O'Sullivan has shown the patience to last out for 17 days and he would have a very difficult run to the final, with the likes of Shaun Murphy and John Higgins potentially waiting for him in later rounds.

O'Sullivan's first round opponent Dominic Dale is the right kind of test for him first up. Dale is a vastly experienced player who has also won a couple of ranking tournaments in his long career, albeit some ten years apart. The Welshman, perhaps surprisingly, has not played at the Crucible since 2004 and is sure to want to make up for lost time. He is decent enough that Ronnie cannot afford to take him lightly, but it is a match that is there for Essex's Exocet to win and I expect him to do just that.
Prediction: O'Sullivan 10-6 Dale

Ricky Walden v Rory McLeod
This does not jump out as one of the ties of the opening round, but Ricky Walden is another fast improving player who has a tendency to play a gung-ho, attacking method of snooker, which when it is effective, makes him a dangerous player against anyone. As with many players of that ilk, however, consistency is Walden's main weakness, but he has now crept into the top 16 for the first time, which could prove to be the making of him.

One of the elder statesmen in the tournament, Rory McLeod serves as something of a phenomenon in snooker circles due to him being the only high profile black snooker player. Other than this piece of trivia, McLeod has also spent part of his time coaching young snooker players in the United Arab Emirates, so he could play a role in future champions emerging from that part of the world.

It does not strike me as being a classic, but there is an incentive to possibly play John Higgins in the second round up for grabs. Although Higgins has held the upper hand in recent times, Walden did defeat Higgins in the UK Championship a few years ago and would pose a threat if they were to meet here. I expect Walden to keep his side of the bargain.
Prediction: Walden 10-5 McLeod

John Higgins v Stephen Lee
Other than Robertson against Trump on the opposite side of the draw, this has the potential to be the tie of the opening round. It is easy to forget with the passage of time, but between them, these two players have amassed 27 career ranking tournament victories. Admittedly, Higgins has claimed 23 of those, but any player with 4 tournament victories as Lee has should be given respect too.

This is the tournament that John Higgins has building towards for his whole season. A year ago, he was unceremoniously removed from the tournament by Steve Davis in the 2nd round, only for sordid allegations to emerge courtesy of film footage from a Sunday newspaper with previous where investigative journalism was concerned, which seemed to imply that Higgins had given an undertaking to throw a match in exchange for a pile of notes with a monarch's head on them. Higgins was cleared of fixing, but banned for six months not declaring the incident and thereby bringing the sport into disrepute. Although Higgins was cleared of corruption, there are plenty of people that follow the sport that felt he had been let off lightly.

As if Higgins' loss of livelihood was not enough, he has also had to contend with the death of his father, who had been a huge mentor in his career. Such setbacks would test the resolve of most mere mortals, but Higgins' response has been extraordinary, even for those familiar with the granite hard determination and will to win that the 'Wizard of Wishaw' has displayed over the years. Since returning from his suspension, Higgins has won 2 ranking tournaments, including a magnificent comeback victory in the UK Championship final, just weeks after his return.

Given how the allegations about Higgins' involvement in match fixing cast a huge shadow over this tournament 12 months ago, I think there will be great determination on Higgins' part to try and atone by winning his fourth World Championship this year, to move him ahead of Ronnie O'Sullivan. He is certainly capable of doing so and there is no-one in the field with a better tactical brain than him, which will be an extremely handy attribute to have over 17 days of play, and he rightly starts the tournament as favourite.

But Stephen Lee is no pushover and comes into the tournament in good form having thrashed Steve Davis in the final qualifying round for the tournament and then beaten Mark Williams in China. He is building breaks again, having struggled in this department for a few years, and if he can keep Higgins off the table for a sustained period in the match, he could force mistakes from his opponent.

This has all the makings of being an epic first round match and although I think that ultimately, Higgins' greater resolve and fighting spirit will see him through, he cannot afford to be involved in too many epics in this tournament, because at 35 years of age, he will quickly get mentally and physically drained as the tournament wears on, whereas he would not have done so much a couple of years ago.
Prediction: Higgins 10-8 Lee

I've started so I'll finish

Well, I'm back again. Back to complete my work from the other night. So much to talk about, yet so little time to talk about it. Everything is just one big rush.

So anyway, I'd started talking the other night about some topics in the news and I got as far as discussing politically incorrect royals and politicians getting ideas above their station. Now time to move on and discuss failing brands, ego possessed cricketers and the most powerful man in the world-elect. Let's get cracking then.

3. KP was nuts
As an avid follower of test cricket, I've been intrigued by the recent rumblings that saw Kevin Pietersen resigning the England cricket captaincy after just three test matches. When I say resigning, I think those who follow the game know that essentially Pietersen tendered his resignation before he was metaphorically given the raised finger by umpire Hugh Morris, the chairman of the English Cricket Board.

Opinion on the matter has been somewhat divided. There are those who say that Pietersen had only publicly voiced what everyone else thought, namely that the England coach Peter Moores was not up to the job. There are others who hold the opinion that Pietersen's Everest sized ego had got the better of him and he had no right to serve up ultimatums to his employers.

For my money, I thought Pietersen shot himself in the foot. I am all for cricket captains having a massive say in what goes on. Cricket captains after all have far more of a tactical responsibility when the game is in progress than they do in other sports, such as football or rugby where the captain is essentially the manager's mouthpiece on the pitch. In cricket, the captain sets the field, makes the bowling changes and if he is in a fortunate enough position, decides when his team declares when they bat. Therefore, it stands to reason that the captain wants a big say in who is coaching the team and who takes to the field.

Where Pietersen went wrong was in his gung-ho approach. By stamping his feet and allowing his differences with Moores to become public and then doing little to deny them, he allowed a situation to escalate. Had Pietersen publicly denied a rift but quietly made it known to the ECB's managers that he had reservations about Moores's coaching methods and his ability to take the team forward, then his bosses would have been duty bound to listen. However, Pietersen overstepped the mark. By making threats and serving up ultimatums while on safari, it was tantamount to signing his own resignation note. Yet, had Pietersen show a touch of emotional intelligence, he would have got what he wanted anyway as I am sure the ECB were considering dispensing with Moores in any event. After all, they sacked him the day before Pietersen resigned.

It was always a risk to appoint Pietersen captain, and I had my doubts about whether it was a smart move at the time of his appointment. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a fantastic batsman and he is the one truly world class player in the England test team. But being the best player doesn't necessarily make you the right person to lead the team. Take Sir Ian Botham for example. The flamboyant, moustachioed all-rounder captained England in 12 test matches and England won none of them. Admittedly 10 of those tests were against the outstanding West Indies team of the early 80s and the other 2 were against Australia, but Botham's own form took a battering when he took charge of the team and it wasn't until he was released from the burden of captaincy that the "Botham's Ashes" performances of 1981 which have entered cricketing folklore came about. More recently, Andrew Flintoff captained England to a 5-0 whitewashing by Australia in the 2006/07 Ashes series, a couple of months before acquainting himself with a Pedalo.

Botham and Flintoff at the time would both have been considered England's best player, but neither were a success as a captain. Like Pietersen, they were both superb (in Flintoff's case, he still is) individual talents but they are also flamboyant, cocky, flash individuals who like being centre of attention. Pietersen, however, craves the limelight and just loves being noticed. He was always likely to ruffle feathers in the dressing room, and that in itself is not a bad thing. Pietersen has an incredible will to win and it has been questionable in recent times whether some of England's other Ashes 2005 heroes have the same desire. But Michael Vaughan showed that you don't need to be flash and fiery to be a captain, what you do need to be is a good man manager and a good tactician. Pietersen had been good in parts in the early stages of his captaincy in both departments, but he did also show signs of weakness.

Andrew Strauss has since been appointed as captain and the general consensus is that he is a "safe pair of hands". I think that description is a bit disrespectful, to be honest as it makes it sound like Strauss is steady yet uninspiring and predictable. I'm not so sure about that. It's worth remembering that Strauss captained England to a test series victory in 2006 against Pakistan when Michael Vaughan was injured before being overlooked for captaining the ill fated tour of Australia the following winter. He is a stalwart of the England team and has also captained Middlesex. He was not considered when Pietersen was appointed only because at the time his place in the team was not guaranteed. Two centuries on the tour of India have ensured that is no longer an issue and Strauss has a quiet determination about him that strikes me that the responsibility of captaincy will bring the best out of him.

People have said that the fallout from Pietersen and Moores's bust-up will have adverse effects on England's chances of retaining The Ashes this summer. I don't think it will be a factor as the series is still six months away yet. England first of all have two series against West Indies to play, one in the Caribbean followed by a series to start the English summer. The maroon caps are light years from being the force they were in the 1980s and they represent the perfect opportunity for England to play themselves back into form ahead of The Ashes and for Strauss to make a creditable start to his reign as England captain.

Besides which, Australia have problems of their own at the moment. Several of their star players of the past 15 years have retired in a short space of time and the new generation of Australian players are taking time to bed in. Recent series defeats to India and at home to South Africa have shown they are not invincible any more and that taking 20 wickets per match is a struggle for them. A return series in South Africa next month will reveal much about what Australia still have to offer, but England certainly should not approach the Australians with trepidation.

As for Pietersen, for the time being I don't see him losing the captaincy affecting his commitment to England. England after all, provides the vehicle for his publicity and he will want to be at the heart of England's efforts to wrestle back The Ashes. Not only will he want to, but his performances definitely will be key to England's chances of winning back the little urn. In the longer term, a lucrative offer to play in the Indian Premier League might be too much for him to turn down, as he would certainly be a major draw card. In times ahead though, in quieter reflective moments at least, I'm sure Pietersen will regret taking such a heavy handed approach in ensuring he got his own way.

4. M&S is simply food
I read with some interest that Marks & Spencer are one of the latest retailers to find themselves struggling in the current economic crisis. The High Street giant posted one of their worst pre-Christmas sale records in history and their profits are down on last year. The offshot of these trends is that M&S are going to lay off 1000 staff and are going to close around 30 stores, of which 25 are M&S's Simply Food convenience stores which are generally found on the forecourts of train stations and petrol stations.

This is a predictable strategy for dealing with financial difficulty as, after all, staff salary costs account for the most significant portion of a company's expenditure. Nonetheless, I was particularly interested in M&S's decision to close 25 Simply Food outlets having read an article that gave an itemisation of where M&S's sales were especially hit. According to a report I read, M&S's December sales for food were down by 1 per cent, while its clothing sales had dipped by 7 per cent.

This kind of confirmed to me something which I had thought for some time, which is that public perception regards M&S as being a store that sells quality food which the consumer is prepared to buy, whereas the public is less convinced by M&S's ability to provide quality clothing. Consumers have for some time found that their tastes in clothing are somewhat different to M&S's rather play-it-safe designs. If people want practical clothing, they are more likely to go to Primark where clothing is available at a discounted price. Primark did, by contrast, have a good December for this very reason. Those that will pay more for own branded fashions are more likely to trust the likes of River Island and Next.

Now, if you take the argument that M&S is first and foremost a food seller, just how much do they splash on square footage in their shops which is taken up by non-food products? Not just clothing, but M&S has also diversified into selling home furnishings and decorations. The thing is, who, hand on heart, genuinely thinks that when they are buying candles, tea cloths or table lamps that they will buy any of those items from M&S? Somewhere like Habitat or maybe Debenham's would be ahead in the queue for starters. Instead of stocking these products that don't sell, M&S could save on their square footage costs or they could stock more food.

Obviously, I'm not saying M&S should ditch all of its other products bar food. I do think it has a long, established history in selling clothes and there is a niche market who has an affinity for the M&S brand. Also, the food market is a saturated one and one disadvantage M&S has in this respect is that unlike Sainsbury's, ASDA or Tesco, it has very few superstores with immediate access to a car park. But I think M&S has a slightly different target market to these giants of the supermarket industry. M&S trades on quality, where people buy food at sometimes premium prices because they suspect they are paying for additional quality. M&S therefore is competing more with Waitrose, who are also not widely known for their superstores.

M&S and its CEO, Sir Stuart Rose have no room for complacency. Having a long established brand that is popular is no guarantee of your longevity. The recent demise of Woolworth's is testament to this, with many of its customers only returning after hearing of its imminent passing, no doubt looking for a good bargain amongst the pick and mix and a free chair for the kitchen from the cafe. M&S's Simply Food stores are relatively small brew in comparison to their bigger stores, but they do sell the core product and their stores surely do not run at such vast overheads. On this basis, it seems odd that M&S have focused its cost cutting on these stores. They must not lose sight that there are other parts of their business that are failing and a radical rethink of what the company's product and positioning strategy may need to be made sooner rather than later.

In other recession news, JCB are also feeling the pinch. This surely comes as no surprise. In the current economic situation, there must be hundreds of building projects that have been started only to be discontinued. There is one such construction next to where I work in Croydon which has been fallow for a good couple of months now after the sound of JCBs could be heard non-stop in late summer. With less construction work taking place and therefore less demand for a JCB, their income is obviously going to decrease.

5. Obama should be wary of Lincoln parallels
So, this Tuesday, Barack Obama officially becomes the forty-fourth leader of the free world and with it the most powerful man in the world. His election was a great achievement and many look forward to the fresh approach that they hope that Obama will deliver. In one sense, Obama can't lose because whatever happens, he surely will be a vast improvement on his predecessor. Safe to say Obama will not be looking for new ways to do harm to his citizens, nor will he be attempting to put food on his family, or indeed will he confirm that most of his country's imports come from abroad. He is also more likely to commit to the environment, as surely he will know that impurities in the air and the water is the same thing as pollution itself.

But while satirists and rednecks may be saddened by George Dubya's departure, surely those of a sane mind will welcome a regime change where a new leader with fresh, considered ideas comes in to try and restore the US's reputation. Unfortunately for Obama, he has a lot of hype to live up to but he takes over at a difficult time. Many questions will be asked of how he handles his early days in charge. Will he close Guantanamo Bay? Will he consider pulling troops out of Iraq? And what of the wider war on terror? And what does he do about the ailing US economy, which is suffering much like its British counterpart? Questions, questions, questions. In some senses, Obama taking over when he does, he could be forgiven for thinking he is inheriting a poisoned chalice.

I think Obama will surprise people, both his supporters and his initial detractors. His supporters might be surprised that he doesn't take such a leftfield approach as they might anticipate. His theories may spring from leftfield but the practicalities of governing may force him to change tack a little. His detractors seem to be people who cast doubt over his experience. I find this line of thought ridiculous. Obama is 47 years old, exactly the same age that Bill Clinton was when he took office, and 4 years older than John F Kennedy was when he became President. OK, Obama does not have a long political career behind him, but I find that a trifle irrelevant. Obama is no intellectual lightweight, he knows politics and social affairs inside out. He is a man of the world. And what he doesn't know about, well, he has a team of well chosen advisors to point him in the right direction on.

It has been noticeable that Obama in the prelude to taking over has been paying homage to Abraham Lincoln by, like Lincoln, taking a slow train from Philadelphia to Washington for the inauguration. Clearly Obama has great respect for one of the US's most renowned Presidents. Nonetheless, there is one parallel that Obama must be careful to avoid. Lincoln was assassinated in Ford's Theatre, Washington in 1865 by John Wilkes Booth and before Obama was even elected, a plot to assassinate him was uncovered.

It was an achievement of sorts that Barack Obama was elected in a country where prejudicial attitudes still fester among some of the poorer and less educated parts of the country. But a great challenge still lies ahead, as the political map on US election night proved, with a strip of Republican red still dominating the southern states. Obama needs to convince many people in that part of the world. He needs to hold his friends close and enemies even nearer to survive for the whole eight years unscathed. I wish Obama all the best in his journey, he is certainly going to need it.

6. Who shot JR?
A simple answer to this question, the Daily Mail. The JR in question is not the Texan oil baron played by Larry Hagman, but the BBC's highest paid employee. The Mail has long had a dislike of the BBC which I discussed on these pages a few weeks ago. But the Mail seem to still have a few bullets hidden in the desks of their office judging their incessant campaign to remove Jonathan Ross from the schedules for good.

Why can't the Mail just get over themselves? They keep convincing themselves that the majority of people on the BBC want Ross sacked, when the actual truth is that Ross has a huge legion of fans who are actually quite unhappy that they have been deprived the opportunity to watch or listen to their favourite irreverent performer these past three months because a bunch of morons who don't have the first interest in Ross took exception to a misguided broadcast which they only heard about second hand.

Next Friday sees the return of Ross's Friday night chat show and a star studded guest list with Tom Cruise, Stephen Fry and Lee Evans all sharing the green room with Scottish rockers Franz Ferdinand. Hardly points to the Mail's boast that Ross's guest bookers had found it difficult to find star names to come and be grilled by the quiffed one. As I believe they say in wrestling circles, controversy creates cash, or where television is concerned, ratings. The controversy of the Ross affair and the publicity his return will generate will surely result in the best audience figures his chat show has ever had. A night out for a few jars might be replaced by a night in with Wossy and a six pack on Friday 23 January.

This week, the Mail expressed shock and outrage that Jonathan Ross had been given the gig of presenting the BAFTA Awards just two weeks after his return to television. How can they do this, they asked? How have they misjudged the public outrage, they added? How dare they!!! Well, Daily Mail, let me explain very carefully and succinctly why the BBC made this appointment.

Jonathan Ross returns to work this Friday. Therefore that makes him eligible for any offers of work from the BBC thereafter. As much as I'm sure the Daily Mail would rather the BBC had him cleaning the toilets or serving baked beans in the BBC canteen, he is paid to be a television presenter. He is an accomplished and established presenter of awards ceremonies too, having presented the British Comedy Awards since 1991 until Angus Deayton stepped into the breach last year. The BAFTA Awards celebrate film and television and Jonathan Ross is the BBC's flagship film reviewer and presenter and he has interviewed many of the big names in the industry. Therefore, why shouldn't Ross present it? Who would the Mail line up? Dale Winton? Jimmy Tarbuck? Richard Littlejohn? Do me a favour.

Ross has tough times ahead. The BBC have effectively put him on a final warning and have censored his chat show. Why this measure was needed on a pre-recorded show when near the knuckle content could always be edited out anyway, I'm not too sure. Ross really should be returning to work and thinking of remaining true to himself, but thanks to our friends from the Mail and other moral crusaders, he is likely to be a broadcasting Icarus, his metaphoric wings burnt through travelling too near the Sun (the big yellow thing in the sky, not the newspaper).

As if that wasn't enough, he also finds himself returning to Radio 2 where he will receive a seasonal welcome. Frosty to say the least. Radio 2 colleagues will resent the fact that Ross remains when Lesley Douglas the former Radio 2 controller does not. That Ross was in the wrong is not in doubt. But his way of redemption is to pull audiences in. The only way he does that is to unashamedly be himself. He is a master at his craft and like all masters, he is sometimes capable of self-destructing. But the world would be a duller place without such people and TV and radio certainly needs controversial and captivating characters like Ross to remain part of the furniture. He seems like one of the good guys.

So, I hope that Ross comes back and shuts all the doubters up and the audiences tune in to send a message to the Daily Mail. Namely, to go and ram their publication firmly somewhere short of sunlight. Oh, and the irony in all of this. Who has been the biggest winner in the Sachsgate affair? Andrew Sachs of course. Having been in semi-retirement just in a few theatrical productions, Sachs is now a regular in Countdown's Dictionary Corner and later this year he will join the cast of Coronation Street. While I'm sure he could have done without the invasion of privacy that Ross and Brand's broadcast served up, it has nonetheless, been the biggest shot in the arm his career has had in many a year. Sachs's agent's phone, well, "it go crazeeee" (sic) as some Spanish waiter once said. It's a funny old world.